Thursday, October 30, 2008

Big Ten Pick 'Em Corner - The Professor's Week 6 Picks

Does anyone else find it ironic (or is it tragic?) that the lone Big Ten Pick 'em Corner participant that actually throws real money on these games currently stands wallowing in second-to-last place in the standings? If only The Host would see the light and go with the only handicapper to post a winning record in five consecutive weeks of the Big Ten season.

Class is in session. These are...The Professor's Smart Money Picks:

We start off with the lone non-conference match-up of the weekend with the Central Michigan Hostile and Abuse Nicknames against Indiana. The tendency here is to go with an Indiana team that ruined KCKCKCK's Northwestern Homecoming, but I'm not so sure that's the right thing to do here. To confirm my suspicions, I talked with former CMU quarterback and Survivor: Guatemala contestant Gary Hogeboom. He told me not to sleep on his former squad, citing the Chippewas' four-game win streak after a one-TD loss on the road at Purdue. Despite their win last week, questions abound on the Hossier sideline on who's going to play QB. Ben Chappell was good last week, but Kellen Lewis was good last year. Who do you start? It really doesn't matter because CMU QB Dan LeFevour is better than both of those hacks. Final Score: Central Michigan 28, Indiana 20 (Central Michigan +2.5 over INDIANA).

We already know how The Professor is picking the next game, so why provide the jocular, witty breakdown? Well, because my breakdowns are usually jocular and/or witty. It's a similar story in both Buckyville and Spartyville this week as both squads think they have things back on track after big wins last weekend. The problem is, who did these teams actually beat? Wisco took down a vastly overrated Illinois squad, while MSU dropped the 2007 Golden Gophers (aka 2008 Michigan). What do those wins actually tell us? Absolutely nothing in The Professor's book. So, to gain some perspective on why I'm going to pick against Bielema's Boys this week, I spoke with my good friend Jud Heathcote. Coach Heathcote told me he loves the passion Mark Dantonio brings to the sideline and thinks Bielema is an arrogant a**hole. That's enough reason for me to pick Sparty. Thanks, coach. Final Score: Michigan State 24, Wisconsin 17 (MICHIGAN STATE -4 over Wisconsin).

On to Homecoming at the Metrodome. This has trap game written all over it. The Goof Troop is brimming with overconfidence; they've won three straight; they're at home for Homecoming; and they might be tempted to look ahead to the Little Brown Jug game next week. Northwestern, meanwhile, is reeling from an embarrassing Homecoming loss to Indiana; they'll be without the services of starters CJ Bacher and Tyrell Sutton; and they wear purple. To get a drug-influenced viewpoint, I turned to former Minnesota and Northwestern employee "Pablo" Morales. The Puerto Rican Dream told me the loss of Bacher just might do the Gophers some favors as his replacement, Mike Kafka, is a more athletic quarterback like Juice Williams, Kellen Lewis and Justin Siller. Imagine my surprise when I fact-checked Morales' analysis and found he's actually correct. Why does this matter? Well, the Goof Troop has shown a surprising ability to shut down athletic quarterbacks this season (Terrelle Pryor's performance notwithstanding). Throw on top of that a good crowd, another chance for revenge and a chance to take some real momentum into the rivalry portion of the schedule, and you'll see The Professor still firmly entrenched on the Minny bandwagon. Final Score: Minnesota 21, Northwestern 10 (MINNESOTA -6.5 over Northwestern).

It's time for another of this season's Big Ten stinker games as Purdue hosts Michigan. Anyone outside the Ann Arbor and West Lafayette city limits should be shot for watching this game. Absolutely no one wanted to talk to me about this game, so I'll go with the tried and true method of picking the complete opposite of what The Host picked. Go Tiller Time. Final Score: Purdue 6, Michigan 3 (PURDUE -2 over Michigan).

The oddsmakers are basically giving Illinois the nod over Iowa based solely on home field advantage. What they're apparently not taking into account are several factors that add up to an Iowa win. 1) Ron Zook has never beaten Kirk Ferentz since coming to Illinois, 2) The Fighting Wickstroms looked particularly awful last week at Wisconsin, 3) Illinois is a Zook-coached team, 4) Iowa is well-rested after a bye week which was after two convincing wins, and 5) Iowa beat Wisconsin 38-16 in their last game, while Illinois lost to Wisconsin 27-17 in their last game. Oh, and Illinois is coached by Ron Zook. I talked with Zook to learn more about this game, and he agreed with me. "Never bet with one of my teams. I'm just not a very good football coach." Enough said. Final Score: Iowa 35, Illinois 30 (Iowa +2.5 over ILLINOIS).

Thus concludes The Professor's Picks of the Week. Remember, "The 'Smart' Money is Always on THE PROFESSOR."

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