Friday, May 22, 2009

Evaluating a GM: The Jeff Keiser Tenure

With a pair of press conferences today in the Twin Cities to announce new general managers for the Minnesota Wild and Minnesota Timberwolves, the status of one of the area's most well-known GMs has come to the forefront. Rumors continue to swirl as to the future of Jeff Keiser (Avon, Conn.), the third-year GM for slowpitch softball team Warning Track Power.

The endeared, yet embattled Keiser took over general manager duties in September of 2007 after a two-year reign by Steve Geller (Port Jefferson, N.Y.) that saw the franchise win back-to-back Cities Sports Connection championships. Geller stepped down with a 25-0 record as GM, saying, "I've accomplished all there is to accomplish in my role as general manager of Boom Goes the Dynamite. It's time for someone else to take the next step and lead this franchise to further success. It won't be difficult with the team I've assembled."

Since then, Keiser's Boom and WTP teams have compiled a 19-13 record in one additional season of CSC play and two campaigns of St. Louis Park Mixed C League action.

Team president and owner Kevin Kurtt (Edina, Minn.) has been steadfast in his support of Keiser as GM, but admits to giving consideration to making a change in the player personnel department after subpar 2007 and 2008 seasons, and an inconsistent start to the 2009 campaign.

"I'm a huge Jeff Keiser fan," Kurtt said. "It's true I've never liked him as an outfielder or as a third baseman, but as a GM, he's a great fit for this organization. Nobody works harder in putting together a team...and not a week goes by that Jeff isn't scouring the waiver wire and free agent market for new acquisitions.

"Maybe Jeff thought it was going to be an easy job when he took over for Geller. He must have looked at what was coming back from the 2006 team and thought a third title was pre-ordained for Boom. But in 2007, I think Jeff went away from what made us a championship-caliber team. I can't put my finger on it, but since we didn't have a coach, I'm forced to blame the GM. Maybe Jeff need to look at the blueprint that Geller put together during his two championship seasons and go from there."

An investigation into the tenure of Keiser as the Boom/WTP GM reveals a host of possible reasons for the franchise falling on hard times, but certainly no "smoking gun" that would undoubtedly doom or absolve Keiser. For the purposes of this research, only free agent signees and 10-day acquisitions were taken into account to grade Keiser's job as GM. Although veteran players from the days of GM Steve Geller are not above reproach, this investigation is solely looking at those players brought into the franchise by Keiser. A list of all acquisitions from 2006-09 is included below.

2007 season (6-4)
After the 2006 CSC Championship season, Boom lost only two regular players (Jeremy Beach and Kelsey Ness), but the record fell from 11-0 to 6-4. If the team's core remained the same, what happened?


* Keiser's lone free agent acquisition, Meghan Potter, failed to live up to the hype. At the time of her signing, Keiser heralded Potter as "a difference maker" and alluded to her status as North Dakota State's 11th-best all-time home run hitter. Potter showed flashes of brilliance in her rookie season, but they were too few and far between. Potter was named the spring season's Library Bar & Grill Rookie of the Year, but was given the 2007 Nick Joss/Mike Lockrem Biggest Disappointment "Award" at the conclusion of the summer season.
* On the flip side, two of Keiser's key 10-day acquistitions - Ryan Maus and Emily Wood - garnered 2007 Burrito Loco Best 10-Day Acquisition Awards. Maus also was named the summer's Rookie of the Year.
* However, the two 2006 Best 10-Day Acquisition Award winners - Emily Hennen and Tyler Thomson - were inexplicably ignored by Keiser when roster spots opened during the 2007 campaign. Other 2006 acquisitions that were never heard from again included Aaron "Dubs" DeBerg, Mike Lockrem and Nate Schultz.
* Three 2007 10-day acquisitions - Alyssa Downing, Ryan Maus and Emily Wood - parlayed their part-time success into a full roster spot in 2008.
* The remaining 10-day acquisitions were a mixed bag for Keiser and Boom, ranging from the good (Peyton N. Owens III), to the better than expected (Chris Cords), to the failed experiment (Anne Strong).

*CONCLUSION: Like his acquisitions, the 2007 season was a mixed bag for Keiser. On one had, Keiser can be commended for maintaining the core of Boom's championship-winning teams. On the other hand, Keiser's free agent signee (Potter) and 10-day acquisitions just were not consistent enough to keep Boom at the top of CSC. It seemed other league franchises closed the gap during Keiser's rookie year as GM.

2008 season (10-8)
The 2008 campaign was a watershed season for Keiser and the entire franchise. Most notably, Boom left its longtime CSC home in favor of greener pastures (literally) in the St. Louis Park Mixed C League. Boom moved to a league that featured fences, real grass and certified umpires, and entered the season with a renewed excitement for the future of the franchise.

Over the offseason, Boom lost key players in Kyle Coughlin (traded for a bucket of softballs and a bag of beef jerky to Chicago club Windy City Express), Alicia Jerome (retired) and Tory Kukowski (signed free agent contract with Norman, Okla., club Cans of Corn). Keiser responded by signing the largest crop of free agents since the inception of the franchise in 2002.

Still, Boom remained mired in mediocrity despite the sweeping changes. What happened?

* Six new players signed by Keiser joined the Boom roster in Cathy Behr, Alyssa Downing, Ryan Maus, Matt Slieter, Jim Strick and Emily Wood. Together, the sextet combined to hit .623 with 86 RBI, 24 doubles and 9 triples. The new players finished second, third, fourth, fifth, 10th and 11th on the team in batting average.
* Keiser signed four 10-day acquisitions in Doug Vose, Bobbi Ross, Michelle Train and Kristine Yorde. Vose (5-5, 5 RBI) and Ross (1-2, RBI) paid big dividends, while Traen and Yorde failed to reach base.
* Strick earned Rookie of the Year honors, while Ross was named the top 10-day acquisition.
* A year after using 12 different 10-day acquisitions, Keiser only needed to sign four in 2008, demonstrating Boom's roster continuity during the season.
* Keiser inked Michelle Train as the franchise's first ever manager.

* CONCLUSION: Despite the record, the 2008 campaign was far and away Keiser's best as GM. From making the push to change leagues to assembling a world-class lineup, Keiser excelled in 2008. So why the 10-8 record? The blame lies solely on the manager. Train was given all the tools to bring Boom back to prominence in 2008, but she failed miserably. The Boom roster in 2008 was as talented and deep as any of the championship-winning teams, but for all her hard work, Train never found the right lineup, defensive alignment or motivational technique to push Boom back to greatness. Train, for her part, blames "the dead bats."

2009 season (3-1)
Only four games into the season, the jury is very much still out on Keiser in 2009. However, due to offseason losses, Keiser has already made several moves in an effort to jump-start the franchise. In addition to player signings, the team ditched the iconic Boom Goes the Dynamite name in favor of a more apt description - Warning Track Power.

So far, WTP has been incredibly inconsistent. After opening the season with a rout, WTP lost an embarrassing one-run game to an inferior team. WTP has rebounded to go on a two-game win streak, but it hasn't been easy.

* The franchise lost veterans Andrea Smith (signed free agent contract with Stockton, Calif., club The Violators) and Emily Wood (retired) during the offseason.
* In response, Keiser signed former opponent Amanda Hoehn as a free agent. So far this season, Hoehn has only played in one game, going 0-for-3 with a strikeout.
* Like 2008, Keiser's 2009 10-day acquisitions have been a mixed bag. Player/manager Michelle Train (2-2, 2 RBI) and Katie Fornasiere (3-4, 2 RBI) were stellar in the season opener, but Ben Flattum (0-2, K) and Carmelina Carabajal (1-3) were underwhelming in the last game.
* It appears that Keiser made a concerted effort to address WTP's alleged chemistry problem that surfaced in 2008 by signing Hoehn (to keep Potter interested) and Flattum/Carabajal (for their social contributions during postgame meals).

* CONCLUSION: It's too early to grade Keiser's performance in 2009, but chemistry looks to be the defining issue of the season. On one hand, Keiser should be commended for worrying about team chemistry. But did he sacrifice on-field performance for off-field enjoyment? It's hard to say right now. A mitigating factor here is the fact that WTP has not played a game with all full-time roster members in attendance. When that happens (sometime in June), we'll know a lot more about Keiser's future as GM.

FRANCHISE MOVES (2006-09)
2006 players (team record 11-0) (Steve Geller, GM)
Kyle Coughlin
Katie Fornasiere
Steve Geller
Lisa Hardy
Alicia Jerome
Jeff Keiser
Tory Kukowski
Casey Kurtt
Kevin Kurtt
Kelsey Ness
Kevin Noth
Andrea Smith
Jeremy Beach 10-day acquisition
Aaron DeBerg 10-day acquisition
Emily Hennen 10-day acquisition
Mike Lockrem 10-day acquisition
Matt Schroeder 10-day acquisition
Nate Schultz 10-day acquisition
Tyler Thomson 10-day acquisition
Michelle Train 10-day acquisition

2006-07 offseason losses
Kelsey Ness

2007 Keiser signees (team record 6-4)
Meghan Potter - 1-year contract
Chris Cords - 10-day acquisition
Alyssa Downing - 10-day acquisition
Katie Fornasiere - 10-day acquisition
Ryan Maus - 10-day acquisition
Peyton N. Owens III - 10-day acquisition
Crissy Potter - 10-day acquisition
Matt Schroeder - 10-day acquisition
Anne Strong - 10-day acquisition
Michelle Train - 10-day acquisition
Emily Wood - 10-day acquisition
Kristine Yorde - 10-day acquisition

2007-08 offseason losses
Kyle Coughlin - traded for a bucket of softballs and a bag of beef jerky to Chicago club Windy City Express
Alicia Jerome - retired
Tory Kukowski - signed free agent contract with Norman, Okla., club Cans of Corn

2008 Keiser signees (team record 10-8)
Cathy Behr - 10-year contract
Alyssa Downing - 8-year contract
Ryan Maus - 8-year contract
Matt Slieter - 3-year contract
Jim Strick - 5-year contract
Emily Wood - 4-year contract
Doug Vose - 10-day acquisition
Bobbi Ross - 10-day acquisition
Kristine Yorde - 10-day acquisition
Michelle Train - player/manager

2008-09 offseason losses
Andrea Smith - signed free agent contract with Stockton, Calif., club The Violators
Emily Wood - retired

2009 Keiser signees (team record 3-1)
Amanda Hoehn - 2-year contract
Ben Flattum - 10-day acquisition
Carmelina Carabajal - 10-day acquisition
Katie Fornasiere - 10-day acquisition
Michelle Train - player/manager

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